Intelligent Analysis and Thought Leadership for the Pellet Sector
FutureMetrics has a unique skill set for providing detailed independent analysis. We combine broad and deep operational expertise, powerful sector focused financial modeling skills, and thought leading market awareness.
- Advice on all aspects of producing, transporting, and selling pellets
- Merger and Acquisition Services
- Strategic analysis
- Expert guidance and due diligence for potential investors and project developers
Download a summary of our team and a list of recent projects and clients HERE.
White Papers and Dashboards
NEW (November 23, 2016) FutureMetrics has posted two recent presentations on the Canadian and Japanese industrial pellet markets.
FutureMetrics posted two recent presentations about potential new markets for industrial wood pellets. One is about the Canadian markets with a specific focus on Alberta. The other is about the Japanese markets and describes the policy drivers that could lead to 15+ million tonnes per year of new demand by 2030. They can be downloaded by clicking the button above. We have also updated the co-firing dashboard to include a calculation of avoided carbon tax (applicable to the Canadian markets). See the link lower on this page.
NEW (October 24, 2016) White Paper and Dashboard - The Lowest Cost Solution for Maximum Decarbonization of the Power Sector while Maintaining Grid Reliability
FutureMetrics has a new White Paper and Dashboard. The white paper compares the analytics of two scenarios that provide on-demand dispatchable power: (1) Retire coal power plants and replace them with new combined cycle natural gas generating stations, and (2) Modify existing pulverized coal power plants to use renewable industrial wood pellets as a substitute for coal. This paper shows that when comparing the two scenarios, and when factoring in the reduction in CO2 emissions from each technological solution, the solution that provides significantly higher CO2 reduction at a lower net monetary cost per avoided ton is by repurposing existing pulverized coal power plants to run on industrial wood pellets. The paper also offers some thoughts on policy. The paper is accompanied by a new dashboard that allows the user to experiment with the assumptions used in the model.
NEW (October 10, 2016) White Paper - Global Industrial Wood Pellet Markets – Future Demand and Future Prices
FutureMetrics has a new White Paper. This brief white paper has estimates for tonnage demand and prices for industrial wood pellets. The tonnage estimates are based on optimistic scenarios in which Japan, Korea, the US, and Canada develop significant demand for co-firing or full-firing of wood pellets in large utility pulverized coal power plants. The price estimates are based on a model of industrial wood pellet price behavior.
NEW (August 22, 2016) White Paper - Opponent to the Clean Power Plan Should Read This Paper
FutureMetrics has a new White Paper. This white paper first reviews the impacts of increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The paper then offers some thoughts on carbon policy and why some influential leaders oppose action on mitigating CO2 emissions. This paper discusses why the Clean Power Plan, as we have coined in an earlier paper, is part of a rational and pragmatic off-ramp towards a more decarbonized future and why those in opposition should reconsider.
NEW (August 12, 2016) Valuation Dashboard
FutureMetrics has a new dashboard. Our latest dashboard is a tool for determining the price for an existing pellet mill. The tool can be used by sellers or buyers to value an existing plant. Many critical inputs can be adjusted. The price can be determined as a multiple of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortizations) or the price can be manually entered. The dashboard shows the before tax IRR and NPV given the input assumptions and price. Click on the link at the top of this column to use the dashboard.
(June 8, 2016) White Paper on Industrial Pellet Markets
FutureMetrics has a new whitepaper. FutureMetrics’ new white paper is, “The Current State of the Industrial Wood Pellet Markets and How the Japanese Market will bring New Opportunities for Growth.” The paper has new market intelligence on the current and future industrial pellet markets for the UK, EU, and Japan. It has a detailed section on why the Japanese market is expected to be a significant demander for industrial pellets.
(May 2, 2016) White Paper on Carbon Accounting and Sustainability
FutureMetrics has a new whitepaper. A recent Washington Post editorial about using wood for energy was poorly informed. It was based on a letter sent to Congress by 65 “experts”. FutureMetrics’ new white paper is, “The Washington Post and 65 ‘experts’ that Wrote a letter to Congress are Wrong about Biomass to Energy.”
(February 12, 2016) William Strauss named as an influential leader in the industry.
William Strauss is named as one of the influential leaders in the biomass sector by Argus Media. Get the document HERE.
(January 12, 2016) White Paper on Pellet Plant Operations by John Swaan
FutureMetrics has a new White Paper by John Swaan that discusses the reasons why pellet plants do not perform as expected. Click on the link at the top of this column to download the paper.
Updated to include carbon tax – Wood Pellets in Coal Power Plants
Clean Power Plan
Pellet Supply Chain
Cost & Margin (EBITDA)
Calculating Wood Needed for a Pellet Project
William Strauss is the recipient of the 2012 International Excellence in BioEnergy Award. Dr. Strauss was named one of the most influential leaders in the biomass sector in 2016 by Argus Media.
John Swaan is the recipient of the 2014 Founders Award for pioneering the North American pellet sector.