FutureMetrics is the leading consultancy in the wood pellet sector

 

FutureMetrics provides information, market analysis, operations guidance, and strategic advice to many of the world’s leading companies in the wood pellet sector.

Intelligent Analysis and Thought Leadership for the Pellet Sector

FutureMetrics uses Argus Direct data to provide its clients with current and detailed information on global wood pellet markets.

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Argus Wood Pellet Index

US$ per metric tonne – one year history
Argus Wood Pellet Index

FutureMetrics has a unique skill set for providing detailed independent analysis. We combine broad and deep operational expertise, powerful sector focused financial modeling skills, and thought leading market awareness.

  • Advice on all aspects of producing, transporting, and selling pellets
  • Operations optimization and operator training for pellet plants
  • Strategic analysis and market research
  • Expert guidance and due diligence for potential investors and project developers

Download a summary of our team and a list of recent projects and clients HERE.

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FutureMetrics Analysis

White Papers and Dashboards

NEW (May 11, 2017) Why the South Korean Utilities May Never Engage in Long-term Offtake Agreements for Industrial Wood Pellets
Demand for industrial wood pellets in S. Korea has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to grow significantly over the next half decade.  This brief white paper discusses why that growth is happening and is expected to continue.  The paper also discusses the risks associated with the S. Korean RPS scheme and shows why the short-term tendering strategy that is used by S. Korean utilities for securing wood pellet fuel may remain in use for the foreseeable future despite the challenges that the absence of long-term agreements place on the supply side.
NEW (March 20, 2017) Micro-Scale Pellet-Fueled Combined Heat and Power
Generating electricity at the micro level with renewable low carbon wood pellets can be part of a distributed power smart grid architecture that can complement small-scale solar, small-scale battery storage, and the growth in the use of electric vehicles.  The new micro-CHP and its potential benefits are described in detail.  The paper is complimented by a new dashboard.

NEW (March 6, 2017) A critique of the Chatham House study.

The recently released paper by the Chatham House is a study that contains many inaccurate statements about the use of wood for energy.   Those statements are presented as facts (when they are not) or as uncontested conclusions (when they are erroneous).  This white paper focuses on the study’s discussions that pertain to the sourcing of raw materials for industrial wood pellets and why they got it wrong.

NEW (January 2, 2017) Trump Wants to Save the Coal Industry. We Offer a Plan that can Help.

The plan that this white paper discusses will sustain coal mining jobs and will create tens of thousands of new jobs in another sector that is experiencing significant job losses: the forest products sector.  The plan will also stimulate billions of dollars of new investment in new US manufacturing plants.

(October 24, 2016) White Paper and Dashboard - The Lowest Cost Solution for Maximum Decarbonization of the Power Sector while Maintaining Grid Reliability

FutureMetrics has a new White Paper and Dashboard. The white paper compares the analytics of two scenarios that provide on-demand dispatchable power: (1) Retire coal power plants and replace them with new combined cycle natural gas generating stations, and (2) Modify existing pulverized coal power plants to use renewable industrial wood pellets as a substitute for coal.  This paper shows that when comparing the two scenarios, and when factoring in the reduction in CO2 emissions from each technological solution, the solution that provides significantly higher CO2 reduction at a lower net monetary cost per avoided ton is by repurposing existing pulverized coal power plants to run on industrial wood pellets. The paper also offers some thoughts on policy.  The paper is accompanied by a new dashboard that allows the user to experiment with the assumptions used in the model.

(October 10, 2016) White Paper - Global Industrial Wood Pellet Markets – Future Demand and Future Prices

FutureMetrics has a new White Paper. This brief white paper has estimates for tonnage demand and prices for industrial wood pellets. The tonnage estimates are based on optimistic scenarios in which Japan, Korea, the US, and Canada develop significant demand for co-firing or full-firing of wood pellets in large utility pulverized coal power plants. The price estimates are based on a model of industrial wood pellet price behavior.

NEW (August 12, 2016) Valuation Dashboard

FutureMetrics has a new dashboard. Our latest dashboard is a tool for determining the price for an existing pellet mill.  The tool can be used by sellers or buyers to value an existing plant.  Many critical inputs can be adjusted.  The price can be determined as a multiple of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortizations) or the price can be manually entered.  The dashboard shows the before tax IRR and NPV given the input assumptions and price.  Click on the link at the top of this column to use the dashboard.

(June 8, 2016) White Paper on Industrial Pellet Markets

FutureMetrics has a new whitepaper. FutureMetrics’ new white paper is, “The Current State of the Industrial Wood Pellet Markets and How the Japanese Market will bring New Opportunities for Growth.”  The paper has new market intelligence on the current and future industrial pellet markets for the UK, EU, and Japan.  It has a detailed section on why the Japanese market is expected to be a significant demander for industrial pellets.

(May 2, 2016) White Paper on Carbon Accounting and Sustainability

FutureMetrics has a new whitepaper. A recent Washington Post editorial about using wood for energy was poorly informed. It was based on a letter sent to Congress by 65 “experts”. FutureMetrics’ new white paper is, “The Washington Post and 65 ‘experts’ that Wrote a letter to Congress are Wrong about Biomass to Energy.

(January 12, 2016) White Paper on Pellet Plant Operations by John Swaan

FutureMetrics has a new White Paper by John Swaan that discusses the reasons why pellet plants do not perform as expected. Click on the link at the top of this column to download the paper.

Interactive Dashboards

NEW – Charging an Electric Vehicle with a Pellet Fueled Micro-CHP

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Updated to include carbon tax – Wood Pellets in Coal Power Plants

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Conversion from Coal to Pellets vs New Natural Gas Power Plant

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Pellet Supply Chain
Cost & Margin (EBITDA)

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Pellet Supply Chain Carbon Footprint

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Wood Chips vs. Pellets

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Valuation Dashboard

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Calculating Wood Needed for a Pellet Project

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Dr. Strauss has been named one of the most influential leaders in the biomass sector two years in a row in 2016 and 2017 by Argus Media. William Strauss is the recipient of the 2012 International Excellence in BioEnergy Award.

John Swaan is the recipient of the 2014 International Founders Award. He is the founder of Pacific BioEnergy and producer of the first transatlantic shipment of wood pellets from North America to Europe (1998).

Near our offices in Western Maine.  A fall “snowbow”.

Dr. Strauss speaking in London at the 2016 Argus Biomass Conference about key challenges and opportunities for the pellet industry in the coming years.