FutureMetrics

The Leading Full Service Consultancy in the Pellet Sector

FutureMetrics

Pellet plant operations and safety optimization services

FutureMetrics

Due diligence for potential investors and lenders

FutureMetrics

FutureMetrics provides due diligence services, information and analysis,
operations guidance, and strategic advice.

Examples of Services that FutureMetrics Provides

  • Operations

      • Optimization of quality, quantity, and cost at existing pellet factories

      • Turn arounds of underperforming pellet factories

      • Safety of operations and pellet storage

  • Developers

      • Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies

      • Owner’s representative during development phase

      • Strategic advice

  • Investors, lenders, and joint venture partnerships

      • New project due diligence (technical and financial)

      • Existing project technical audits, economic valuation, and ROI analysis

      • Market intelligence, strategic advice

 

Mitigating climate change is

the foundation of our mission.

 

A new record high of 428.59 ppm was set on April 26, 2024.

Use the mouse to zoom into recent data on the chart.

Historic and Current Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (and other data)
Data updated daily – The chart is interactive
 

 

 

The Global Wood Pellet Trade Flow Map has Complete 2023 Data.

Scroll down and click on the map.

  • Advice on all aspects of producing, transporting, and selling pellet fuel

  • Expert guidance and due diligence for potential investors, lenders, and project developers

  • Operations optimization for pellet plants

  • Strategic analysis and market research

  • Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies

 

(September 2, 2024)

A New FutureMetrics White Paper!

The Lowest Cost Solution for Maximum Decarbonization of the On-Demand Power Sector while Maintaining Grid Reliability.
Under many plausible scenarios, building new natural gas combined cycle generation is NOT the optimal solution.

(August 15, 2024)

FutureMetrics White Paper!

The Future will not be Powered by Fossil Fuels:
Strategic thoughts on the transition to a decarbonized future.

Go to the white papers page from the link below to get the recent white papers that describe the dashboard’s analysis.

DASHBOARDS

More than a dozen free to use dashboards that allow the user to experiment with scenarios relevant to the wood pellet sector.

Global Trade Flow Map shows where exporting nations’ pellets go and where importing nations’ pellets come from.

Data is from the calendar year 2023.

Click on the map image or HERE to open the Sankey map.

FutureMetrics’ Research Studies

If you are considering “black” pellets as either a producer or end user, you should read:

Advanced Biomass Solutions for Coal Substitution in Power Generation

Optimizing carbon-beneficial coal replacement for power generation when white pellets are not optimal

This 90-page study contains a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of “black” pellet technologies.

View the table of contents and abstract HERE.

To purchase, click HERE

FutureMetrics Analysis

FREE WHITE PAPERS

(Links to dashboards HERE)

(September 2, 2024) - What is the Lowest Cost Solution for Maximum Decarbonization of the On-Demand Power Sector

If the capacity factor is much below baseload (<80%) and natural gas prices are not at rock bottom, building new natural gas combined cycle generation is not the optimal solution.

(August 15, 2024) - The Future will not be Powered by Fossil Fuels

Strategic thoughts on the transition to a decarbonized future.  This white paper discusses the “fossil fuel age” and the urgency of good policy for moving toward net zero.  “Transitions are better if they are managed and gradual rather than being forced by crisis and chaos.”

(June 17, 2024) - What is the Pellet Fuel Storage Solution when a Power Station using Pellet Fuel only Operates During Part of the Year?

This short paper and the accompanying dashboard show the consequences of a mismatch between white pellet consumption at a power station with a low capacity factor and white pellet production by pellet factories with offtake agreements for that station.  The dashboard illustrates the significant capital cost savings of avoiding the dry storage requirements of white pellets by using waterproof steam treated pellets.

(May 5, 2024) - Managing Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations and a Rapidly Changing Climate with Exponentially Increasing Demand for Electricity

This brief white paper discusses the rapid increase in current and forecast demand for electricity.  The transition away from fossil fuel generated power will be challenged by demand growth.  This paper offers a way to make baseload green power sustainably. 

(Updated Charts May 2, 2024) - Have We Passed the Tipping Point for Climate Change? Charts Tell the Story!

This 4-page white paper shows how CO2 emissions are causing rapidly accelerating changes in ocean temperatures.  The last chart suggests that we may have already passed the climate change tipping point!

(January 2, 2024) - Sometimes Black Pellets are the Optimal Choice for Power Stations Replacing Coal

This short white paper describes the decision-making model that every power boiler operator that is considering conversion from coal to pellet fuel should use.  The decision-making model is built into an interactive dashboard that allows the user to experiment with a variety of inputs and see how, under some input combinations, black pellets, not white pellets, are the optimum choice for fuel. 

(December 17, 2023) - FutureMetrics discusses COP28

On December 13, 2023, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change delivered the outcome of COP28.  This comprehensive FutureMetrics white paper discusses the goals set out in the “first global stocktake”.

(October 2, 2023) - Analyzing the Impact of the French Announcement to Convert Two Coal Power Plants to Pellet Fuel

France has announced that its two remaining coal fueled power stations will run on 100% pellet fuel by 2027.  This short analysis and NEW dashboard shows that this will result in significant growth in the industrial pellet fuel markets.

(September 17, 2023) - Heat Pumps - They are Great until they Aren't!

This white paper analyzes the operating costs of heat pumps.  It shows that in colder climates, supplemental heat is always needed.  And in many colder locations, they are NOT the lowest cost heating option.

(July 19, 2023) - This white paper and a new interactive dashboard provides a quantitative view of the US and Canadian forest products sector.

Where do you think lumber, furniture, flooring, paper, cardboard boxes, tissue, and toilet paper come from?  A quantitative review of the North American forest products industry with a new interactive dashboard.

As the white paper and dashboard show, the export pellet sector only uses about 3.2% of the primary harvest directly from the forest.  The rest goes to lumber, paper, etc.

(May 1, 2023) - Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere hit a new record high on April 28, 2023. Dr. Strauss discusses CO2 and climate change in a compelling call to action white paper.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) hit another new record high on April 28, 2023, of 425.01 parts per million (ppm).  The implications are dire.

This white paper makes it clear that urgent meaningful action on carbon emissions policy is needed.

(March 24, 2023) - Carbon Negative! An analysis by Dr. Strauss that shows a pathway that the US can follow to join the offramp to a decarbonized future.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recent report makes it clear that action is needed now.    

This new analysis by FutureMetrics’ William Strauss describes a strategy that the US can follow that yields carbon negative results AND generates baseload power.

(March 14, 2023) - The story of one of the pioneers in the wood pellet sector, John Swaan

Twenty-five years ago, the first bulk shipment of industrial wood pellets traveled from British Columbia to the Helsingborg Energi power plant in Sweden, marking the birth of today’s multibillion dollar industrial wood pellet industry. 

The person behind this accomplishment, John Swaan, tells some of the stories which led him to that first contract worth $1.67 million in 1998.

(February 20, 2023) - Can Pellet Factories Make Money in the Current Markets with their Legacy Offtake Agreements?

There has been much discussion recently about the offtake pricing relationships between pellet producers and pellet buyers.

Many years of near zero inflation resulted in some complacency in how offtake price adjustments were defined in the bilateral contracts between the pellet fuel producers and buyers.  It became common to define an annual fixed adjustment to the sales price of the pellets; often in the range of 1.5% to 2.5%.  With hindsight, it is obvious that this exposed producers to risk if the average cost of production increased faster than the price.

This brief white paper will set the foundation for the reader to use the dashboards that complements this analysis.

(October 31, 2022) - SUPPLY SHOCK! -Global Wood Pellet Fuel Markets in 2022

A supply shock occurs when a significant portion of a good or service is no longer available in the market and substitutes are scarce or non-existent.

This white paper describes how the loss of pellet fuel supply into western Europe and the UK as a result of sanctions on Russia has produced a supply shock that is having, and will continue to have, significant consequences.

(October 10, 2022) - How Wood Pellets are Improving Health and Ecology in Rwanda

This white paper shows how wood pellets and high efficiency gasifying pellet cookers will be beneficial to the people and ecology of Rwanda and many other countries in which people use smoky solid fuels for cooking.

FutureMetrics is honored and proud to be providing analysis and consulting services to BioMassters via the support of the Clean Cooking Alliance (an organization within the United Nations).

(August 29, 2022) - How the Inflation Reduction Act supports bioenergy carbon capture and sequestration in US power stations.

The Inflation Reduction Act has opened the door for what may be the most efficient and pragmatic approach to actively lowering atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  Combining the use of fuel produced from the by-products of continuously growing managed forests with carbon capture results in the same outcome as direct air capture.  This white paper and the new accompanying dashboard show how.

(June 25, 2022) - Do we really want to exclude all roundwood from being used to make pellet fuel?

There has been high-level discussion from some government policymakers in the EU about restricting the use of “roundwood” as feedstock for pellet fuel.  While the spirit of the policymaking exercise is properly grounded as a tactic to disallow deforestation and encourage the most efficient use of a renewing resource, a blanket exclusion of “roundwood” is misguided.  This white paper explains why.  This white paper also discusses the dynamics of forest growth and carbon sequestration.

(April 21, 2022) - How High Inflation Might Impact the Industrial Wood Pellet Industry

This comprehensive 32-page white paper uses advanced simulation techniques to explore every part of the industrial wood pellet supply chain.  The analysis shows how high inflation could impact the sector.  The paper offers some thoughts on mitigating the negative impacts of high inflation.

(March 2, 2022) - Germany's Power Generation in 2022 and Beyond

This white paper discusses a biomass fuel strategy for the German power generation sector that has the potential to reduce dependence on imported natural gas, mitigate grid reliability risk, solidify baseload generation, and significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.  It is complimented by a new interactive dashboard.

(December 2, 2021) - The next wave of Japanese pellet fuel demand will be from the large utility power stations.

This white paper discusses how Japanese policy has set the foundation for the next wave of pellet fuel demand.  It uses a real-world example based on recent announcements by J-Power and Enviva.

(October 14, 2021) - Will India become an importer of industrial wood pellets?

This brief white paper is motivated by a policy announcement in India on October 8 that mandates that 5% to 10% biomass pellets must be blended with coal by October 2022 in most of its coal fueled power stations.

This white paper quantifies the demand for biomass pellets based on the Indian coal fueled power generation fleet.  It also offers an opinion on the potential for India to import wood pellets.

(September 9, 2021) - Enough Already with the Fallacy of Carbon Debt!

Even after years of explaining managed forest dynamics, the carbon debt misconception lives on. 

To this day, and sometimes by academics with PhD’s after their names, the carbon debt fallacy is perpetuated.  This white paper will explain why they get it wrong. 

(July 26, 2021) - Why the industrial Pellet Fuel Sector should Work with the Wind and Solar Power Sectors

This white paper’s thesis is that the likelihood of evolving policy that supports continue growth in demand for pellet fuels might be significantly increased by focused efforts on cooperation between the pellet sector and the consortiums that advocate for wind power, solar power, and energy storage.

Cooperation in strategy and communications may yield a future in which government strategies and influential reporting will have a more complete view of how to get from today to a fully decarbonized power sector.

Many more free papers are listed on the paper download page.

FutureMetrics’ Senior Team Members

Dr. Strauss president and founder of FutureMetrics, is a recognized leader in the pellet fuel sector.  he was named one of the most influential leaders in the biomass sector two years in a row in 2016 and 2017 by Argus Media. William Strauss is the recipient of the 2012 International Excellence in BioEnergy Award.  In 2021 Dr. Strauss received the “Limitless Business Intelligence” award for his work in creating interactive online dashboards.

John Swaan, FutureMetrics’ operations expert, is the recipient of the 2014 International Founders Award. He is the founder of Pacific BioEnergy and producer of the first transatlantic shipment of wood pellets from North America to Europe (1998).  John was honored with the “Lifetime Achievement Award” in April 2023 at the Argus Biomass conference in London.

Kayleigh Rayner Brown is a process safety specialist with expertise in hazard analysis, combustible dust, and inherently safer design in pellet manufacturing.  Kayleigh is a Professional Engineer and holds a Bachelor of Science (Chemistry, Honors), Bachelor of Engineering (Chemical), and Master of Applied Science (Chemical Engineering, Process Safety).

Laurenz Schmidt provides rigorous analytic skills to FutureMetrics’ analyses of contemporary wood fiber conversion and densification processes.

Yoshinobu “Yoshi” Kusano provides analysis on Japanese policy and insights into the future of the Japanese markets for wood pellets.