Leveraging the existing global pellet trade infrastructure to support the decarbonization of the steel industry

If the capacity factor is much below baseload (<80%) and natural gas prices are not at rock bottom, building new natural gas combined cycle generation is not the optimal solution.

Strategic thoughts on the transition to a decarbonized future.  This white paper discusses the “fossil fuel age” and the urgency of good policy for moving toward net zero.  “Transitions are better if they are managed and gradual rather than being forced by crisis and chaos.”

This short paper and the accompanying dashboard show the consequences of a mismatch between white pellet consumption at a power station with a low capacity factor and white pellet production by pellet factories with offtake agreements for that station.  The dashboard illustrates the significant capital cost savings of avoiding the dry storage requirements of white pellets by using waterproof steam treated pellets.

This brief white paper discusses the rapid increase in current and forecast demand for electricity.  The transition away from fossil fuel generated power will be challenged by demand growth.  This paper offers a way to make baseload green power sustainably. 

This 4-page white paper shows how CO₂ emissions are causing rapidly accelerating changes in ocean temperatures.  The last chart suggests that we may have already passed the climate change tipping point!

This short white paper describes the decision-making model that every power boiler operator that is considering conversion from coal to pellet fuel should use.  The decision-making model is built into an interactive dashboard that allows the user to experiment with a variety of inputs and see how, under some input combinations, black pellets, not white pellets, are the optimum choice for fuel. 

On December 13, 2023, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change delivered the outcome of COP28.  This comprehensive FutureMetrics white paper discusses the goals set out in the “first global stocktake”.

France has announced that its two remaining coal fueled power stations will run on 100% pellet fuel by 2027.  This short analysis and NEW dashboard shows that this will result in significant growth in the industrial pellet fuel markets.

This white paper analyzes the operating costs of heat pumps.  It shows that in colder climates, supplemental heat is always needed.  And in many colder locations, they are NOT the lowest cost heating option.

Where do you think lumber, furniture, flooring, paper, cardboard boxes, tissue, and toilet paper come from?  A quantitative review of the North American forest products industry with a new interactive dashboard.

As the white paper and dashboard show, the export pellet sector only uses about 3.2% of the primary harvest directly from the forest.  The rest goes to lumber, paper, etc.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) hit another new record high on April 28, 2023, of 425.01 parts per million (ppm).  The implications are dire.

This white paper makes it clear that urgent meaningful action on carbon emissions policy is needed.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recent report makes it clear that action is needed now.    

This new analysis by FutureMetrics’ William Strauss describes a strategy that the US can follow that yields carbon negative results AND generates baseload power.

Twenty-five years ago, the first bulk shipment of industrial wood pellets traveled from British Columbia to the Helsingborg Energi power plant in Sweden, marking the birth of today’s multibillion dollar industrial wood pellet industry. 

The person behind this accomplishment, John Swaan, tells some of the stories which led him to that first contract worth $1.67 million in 1998.

There has been much discussion recently about the offtake pricing relationships between pellet producers and pellet buyers.

Many years of near zero inflation resulted in some complacency in how offtake price adjustments were defined in the bilateral contracts between the pellet fuel producers and buyers.  It became common to define an annual fixed adjustment to the sales price of the pellets; often in the range of 1.5% to 2.5%.  With hindsight, it is obvious that this exposed producers to risk if the average cost of production increased faster than the price.

This brief white paper will set the foundation for the reader to use the dashboards that complements this analysis.

A supply shock occurs when a significant portion of a good or service is no longer available in the market and substitutes are scarce or non-existent.

This white paper describes how the loss of pellet fuel supply into western Europe and the UK as a result of sanctions on Russia has produced a supply shock that is having, and will continue to have, significant consequences.

This white paper shows how wood pellets and high efficiency gasifying pellet cookers will be beneficial to the people and ecology of Rwanda and many other countries in which people use smoky solid fuels for cooking.

FutureMetrics is honored and proud to be providing analysis and consulting services to BioMassters via the support of the Clean Cooking Alliance (an organization within the United Nations).

The Inflation Reduction Act has opened the door for what may be the most efficient and pragmatic approach to actively lowering atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.  Combining the use of fuel produced from the by-products of continuously growing managed forests with carbon capture results in the same outcome as direct air capture.  This white paper and the new accompanying dashboard show how.

There has been high-level discussion from some government policymakers in the EU about restricting the use of “roundwood” as feedstock for pellet fuel.  While the spirit of the policymaking exercise is properly grounded as a tactic to disallow deforestation and encourage the most efficient use of a renewing resource, a blanket exclusion of “roundwood” is misguided.  This white paper explains why.  This white paper also discusses the dynamics of forest growth and carbon sequestration.

This comprehensive 32-page white paper uses advanced simulation techniques to explore every part of the industrial wood pellet supply chain.  The analysis shows how high inflation could impact the sector.  The paper offers some thoughts on mitigating the negative impacts of high inflation.

This white paper discusses a biomass fuel strategy for the German power generation sector that has the potential to reduce dependence on imported natural gas, mitigate grid reliability risk, solidify baseload generation, and significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.  It is complimented by a new interactive dashboard.

This white paper discusses how Japanese policy has set the foundation for the next wave of pellet fuel demand.  It uses a real-world example based on recent announcements by J-Power and Enviva.

This brief white paper is motivated by a policy announcement in India on October 8 that mandates that 5% to 10% biomass pellets must be blended with coal by October 2022 in most of its coal fueled power stations.

This white paper quantifies the demand for biomass pellets based on the Indian coal fueled power generation fleet.  It also offers an opinion on the potential for India to import wood pellets.

Even after years of explaining managed forest dynamics, the carbon debt misconception lives on. 

To this day, and sometimes by academics with PhD’s after their names, the carbon debt fallacy is perpetuated.  This white paper will explain why they get it wrong. 

This white paper’s thesis is that the likelihood of evolving policy that supports continue growth in demand for pellet fuels might be significantly increased by focused efforts on cooperation between the pellet sector and the consortiums that advocate for wind power, solar power, and energy storage.

Cooperation in strategy and communications may yield a future in which government strategies and influential reporting will have a more complete view of how to get from today to a fully decarbonized power sector.