FutureMetrics is the leading consultancy in the wood pellet sector

FutureMetrics provides information, market analysis, operations guidance, and strategic advice to many of the world’s leading companies in the wood pellet sector.

Intelligent Analysis, Operations Guidance, and
Strategic Leadership for the Pellet Sector

FutureMetrics has a unique skill set for providing detailed independent analysis. We combine broad and deep operational expertise, powerful sector focused financial modeling skills, and thought leading market awareness.

FutureMetrics’ expertise and experience across the pellet supply chain make it more than just a market intelligence consultancy.

Mitigating climate change is the foundation of our mission.

A new record high of 422.06 ppm was set on April 26, 2022.

Use the mouse to zoom into recent data on the chart.

Historic and Current Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (and other data)
Data updated daily – The chart is interactive
 

  • Advice on all aspects of producing, transporting, and selling pellet fuel

  • Expert guidance and due diligence for potential investors, lenders, and project developers

  • Operations optimization for pellet plants

  • Strategic analysis and market research

  • Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies

​NEW August 1, 2022
Dr. Strauss discusses wood pellet markets in an 18 minute podcast.

New White Paper and Dashboard!

June 25, 2022

Excluding “roundwood” from use for bioenergy is misguided.  Read why.  The dashboard compliments the paper.

Global Trade Flow Map shows where exporting nations’ pellets go and where importing nations’ pellets come from.

Open the map to see the tonnage that was exported from from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus in 2021 and is no longer entering the importing countries.

Click on the map image or HERE to open the Sankey map.

FutureMetrics’ Research Studies

The “Comprehensive Overview of Global Pellet Markets” report contains about 100 pages of up-to-date text, charts, and tables.  Sample table of contents HERE.

For your custom created copy, contact papers@FutureMetrics.com.

Detailed research papers on torrefaction and steam explosion processes for producing black pellets.

Click HERE for more.

FutureMetrics Analysis

FREE WHITE PAPERS

(Links to dashboards farther down the page)

(June 25, 2022) - Do we really want to exclude all roundwood from being used to make pellet fuel?

There has been high-level discussion from some government policymakers in the EU about restricting the use of “roundwood” as feedstock for pellet fuel.  While the spirit of the policymaking exercise is properly grounded as a tactic to disallow deforestation and encourage the most efficient use of a renewing resource, a blanket exclusion of “roundwood” is misguided.  This white paper explains why.  This white paper also discusses the dynamics of forest growth and carbon sequestration.

(April 21, 2022) - How High Inflation Might Impact the Industrial Wood Pellet Industry

This comprehensive 32-page white paper uses advanced simulation techniques to explore every part of the industrial wood pellet supply chain.  The analysis shows how high inflation could impact the sector.  The paper offers some thoughts on mitigating the negative impacts of high inflation.

(March 2, 2022) - Germany's Power Generation in 2022 and Beyond

This white paper discusses a biomass fuel strategy for the German power generation sector that has the potential to reduce dependence on imported natural gas, mitigate grid reliability risk, solidify baseload generation, and significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.  It is complimented by a new interactive dashboard.

(December 2, 2021) - The next wave of Japanese pellet fuel demand will be from the large utility power stations.

This white paper discusses how Japanese policy has set the foundation for the next wave of pellet fuel demand.  It uses a real-world example based on recent announcements by J-Power and Enviva.

(October 14, 2021) - Will India become an importer of industrial wood pellets?

This brief white paper is motivated by a policy announcement in India on October 8 that mandates that 5% to 10% biomass pellets must be blended with coal by October 2022 in most of its coal fueled power stations.

This white paper quantifies the demand for biomass pellets based on the Indian coal fueled power generation fleet.  It also offers an opinion on the potential for India to import wood pellets.

(September 9, 2021) - Enough Already with the Fallacy of Carbon Debt!

Even after years of explaining managed forest dynamics, the carbon debt misconception lives on. 

To this day, and sometimes by academics with PhD’s after their names, the carbon debt fallacy is perpetuated.  This white paper will explain why they get it wrong. 

(July 26, 2021) - Why the industrial Pellet Fuel Sector should Work with the Wind and Solar Power Sectors

This white paper’s thesis is that the likelihood of evolving policy that supports continue growth in demand for pellet fuels might be significantly increased by focused efforts on cooperation between the pellet sector and the consortiums that advocate for wind power, solar power, and energy storage.

Cooperation in strategy and communications may yield a future in which government strategies and influential reporting will have a more complete view of how to get from today to a fully decarbonized power sector.

(July 5, 2021) - Pellets Version 2.0 will Lower the Barriers for Pellet Fuel as a Coal Substitute in Utility Power Stations

Version 1.0 of wood pellets, i.e., so-called “white” pellets, have been unchanged for decades.  The promise of more advanced pellets has been around for at least two decades.  So-called “black” pellets that do not lose their integrity when exposed to water, and have other characteristics that lower the barriers for adoption as a coal substitute,  have not, to date, gained significant market share.  This white paper discusses why and also shows how innovation may have opened the door, finally, to pellets version 2.0.

(May 3, 2021) - From Start to Finish - How to Subtract Carbon Dioxide from the Atmosphere and Produce Baseload Power

The idea of carbon capture and storage (CCS) used in conjunction with fossil fueled power generation is appealing.  However, the best that CCS can achieve with fossil fuels is to approach CO2 neutrality.  That is, they cycle carbon that has been sequestered over millions of years from out of the ground and then back into the ground.  There is no net change in atmospheric CO2 as a result.

But we can do better.  Carbon neutral is good, carbon negative is much better.  This white paper envisions a future in which some of the existing coal fueled power stations are modified to use pellet fuel and capture and sequester the carbon dioxide produced from combustion.  CO2 permanently  removed from the atmosphere and renewable power are the result.

This paper is accompanied by a new dashboard.  See below in the dashboard section.  The dashboard is also directly linked from within the white paper.

(March 31, 2021) - What is the Lowest Cost Solution for Maximum Decarbonization of the Power Sector while Maintaining Grid Reliability?

If the goal of policy is to lower CO2 emissions in the power sector, the metric that should inform decision making should be based on the total investment and operating cost per avoided tonne of CO2

This white paper will discuss this metric and will compare the analytics of two scenarios that provide on-demand dispatchable power: (1) Retire coal power plants and replace them with new natural gas combined cycle generating stations, and (2) modify existing pulverized coal power plants to use renewable industrial wood pellets as a substitute for coal.  

(December 30, 2020) - Using Biomass Carbon Capture and Sequestration to achieve NEGATIVE carbon emissions

This short white paper and the accompanying dashboard show how combining the use of sustainably sourced wood pellets and carbon capture and sequestration in a power plant can achieve significant negative CO2 emissions.  The paper shows why BCCS must be part of every decarbonization strategy.

(November 16, 2020) - A climate strategy for the Biden administration

The goal of attaining a carbon free electricity generation sector is necessary. But the path from today to that goal needs to be pragmatic. This white paper offers guidance for near and long-term solutions that the Biden administration can incorporate into their strategy.

Many more free papers are listed on the paper download page.

 

Interactive Dashboards
are now on their own
PAGE

FutureMetrics’ Senior Team Members

Dr. Strauss has been named one of the most influential leaders in the biomass sector two years in a row in 2016 and 2017 by Argus Media. William Strauss is the recipient of the 2012 International Excellence in BioEnergy Award.  In 2021 Dr. Strauss received the “Limitless Business Intelligence” award for his work in creating interactive online dashboards.

John Swaan, FutureMetrics’ operations expert, is the recipient of the 2014 International Founders Award. He is the founder of Pacific BioEnergy and producer of the first transatlantic shipment of wood pellets from North America to Europe (1998).

Hannah Campbell is FutureMetrics’ logistics specialist. Hannah brings a military background as an Air Force Academy graduate and logistics specialist as an officer in the Air Force to her work with FutureMetrics. 

Laurenz Schmidt provides rigorous analytic skills to FutureMetrics’ analyses of contemporary wood fiber conversion and densification processes.

Yoshinobu “Yoshi” Kusano provides analysis on Japanese policy and insights into the future of the Japanese markets for wood pellets.
Annette Bossler provides detailed market intelligence on renewable energy policies around the world with a strong focus on Japan.  Annette speaks fluent Japanese. She was the 2013 recipient of the President’s Award from the Maine International Trade Center.