FutureMetrics has developed a comprehensive model for estimating the cost of producing and transporting wood pellets from all major producing regions to the foreign ports of major industrial end users.  Our model provides valuable insight into the future costs and prices for industrial wood pellets and the potential cash flow risks associated with the uncertainty of those costs.  It is important to analyze pellet supply chain cash flows and costs to better understand the price dynamics in long-term offtake agreements.  FutureMetrics’ model provides insight into the components of the total cost of industrial wood pellets delivered to a foreign port.  It offers information that is crucial to due diligence by pellet producers, buyers, traders, suppliers, and financial stakeholders in the wood pellet industry.

This brief white paper explores the Vietnam pellet export sector.   With growth in pellet exports from Vietnam going from nearly zero to about 2.75 million metric tonnes per year over seven years, the obvious questions are:  What are the limits to growth for that country and what will be the future costs, and thus future prices, for pellets produced in Vietnam and shipped to South Korea and Japan?

This white paper describes how the solar energy captured by plants and converted into, and stored as energy rich carbohydrates should be part of how we achieve a reliable and economically feasible transition to a decarbonized future.

This brief white paper shows how weather (heating degree days) and the price of heating oil influence demand for wood pellets for heating.  The paper also looks at actual pellet prices in several selected states.

This white paper is about fires in wood pellet storage systems and the lessons learned from several decades of experience.  The author of this paper has over four decades of hands-on experience with wood pellet manufacturing.  The experience and wisdom that he and others have gained is the basis for the best practices that are described in the white paper.

This white paper not only discusses best practice but also recounts how they were used to successfully resolve a major silo fire.  The silo fire was at the Pacific BioEnergy (PacBio) 350,000 tonne per year pellet plant in Prince George, BC* in August of 2017.  The tactics used to combat the fire resulted in a successful outcome.  This is in contrast to a long history of silo and dome fires resulting in the complete loss of the structures, major damage to the surrounding infrastructure, and injury and loss of life.

*The original pellet mill of the company that became Pacific BioEnergy in Prince George, BC was built by the author of this white paper, John Swaan, in 1994.

This short paper discusses a renewable biomass-based strategy for the power sector that is good for the environment and offers a low-cost method of reducing CO₂ while providing essential baseload power to the grid.  The strategy is not based on complex chemistry to produce liquid fuel from biomass.  The strategy is based on a proven process for upgrading wood into a densified and durable solid fuel that is suitable for use in large utility power boilers that are based on pulverized coal fuel systems.

The recently released paper by the Chatham House is a study that contains many inaccurate statements about the use of wood for energy.   Those statements are presented as facts (when they are not) or as uncontested conclusions (when they are erroneous).  This white paper focuses on the study’s discussions that pertain to the sourcing of raw materials for industrial wood pellets and why they got it wrong.

FutureMetrics has a new White Paper by John Swaan that discusses the reasons why pellet plants do not perform as expected. Click on the link at the top of this column to download the paper.